Forecasting with Report Builder

Forecasting with Report Builder

This article provides an overview of the forecasting functionality now available in Report Builder. This tool helps you predict future rental revenue and occupancy for your single-unit, syncing listings, enabling you to make more informed business decisions.

Key Features

  1. New TemplateA dedicated "Forecasting" template is now available within Report Builder.
  2. Key MetricsThe tool provides forecasts for Rental Revenue and Occupancy. These new metrics can also be used in any of your custom Report Builder templates.
  3. Listing Scope: Forecasting is currently available for:
    1. Single-unit listings. (Will be available for multi-units soon)
    2. Listings that are actively syncing.
  4. Time Horizon: Forecasts are generated for the next 12 months.
  5. Frequency: A new forecast is created on the 1st of every month.
  6. View Levels: You can view the forecast at the listing, group, sub-group, or account level.

How the Forecast is Generated

The forecasting process uses a machine learning model to predict future performance by combining various data sources.
  1. Data InputsThe model utilizes pricing logshistorical booking dataand market occupancy information.
  2. Predictive Model: A machine learning model is trained to identify the relationship between factors like minimum stayweekendsholidaysmarket demand, and past booking patterns.
  3. Daily Prediction: At the time of forecasting, the model predicts the likelihood that a listing will get booked on each day.
  4. Adjustments:
    1. Predictions are adjusted based on a listing's and the market's pacing to ensure realistic expectations at a monthly level. When a listing has insufficient data, the model uses market-level data to make these adjustments.
    2. Uncustomized prices are adjusted based on past and current Average Daily Rates (ADRs) at a monthly level.
  5. Final Calculation: The monthly revenue forecasts are calculated by combining the predicted demand with the adjusted uncustomized prices.

Accuracy of the Forecast

  • Timeframe: The forecast is more accurate for upcoming months compared to months further out.
  • Historical Data: While not required, the forecast is more accurate if last year's reservation data is available, as it provides the model with a more robust baseline for its predictions.

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